On October 15, 2010, during the 7th China International Semiconductor Lighting Exhibition and Forum, Li Bingjie, chairman of Taiwan Jingyuan Optoelectronics, accepted a joint interview with the media such as HC Lighting. In the interview, Chairman Li Bingjie of Taiwan Jingyuan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. published many unique insights from the LED chip technology route to the LED market trend.
What is the current development of AC-LED? How is the industrialization situation?
Li Bingjie: The starting point of AC-LED is because we use the mains, they are all AC, but the LEDs used to be driven by DC. There is a process for converting from utility power to direct current. The entire LED has not been planned for the mains, AC-LED was born under this demand. We hope that the chip can be made directly to the mains, and a chip can be directly inserted into the room without being burned. But taking into account production variability, assuming that today's domestic power supply is 220 volts, we may only make the chip 200 volts, plus an external resistor to achieve current stability. This makes us have to consider the design of the bridge in production. This design requires a relatively large area on the chip, but it costs a lot. In other cases, if we don't have enough space to do the power conversion. At that time, the cost of electricity conversion can be saved. So far, if the efficiency is the same, the AC-LED made is 10% more expensive than the DC LED, and if the cost is the same, the efficiency will be lower. Although there is no price problem when there is not enough space, the cost is actually very important. So the bridge is replaced by a traditional external chip, the chip inside is a high-voltage chip, the voltage may be 100 to 200 volts, the design of this bridge is external, small space, low cost, so compared with DC in cost Being able to compete is more advantageous in space. If the space is large, the design can be more flexible.
The current mass production, the number of high-voltage chips is larger than the direct AC-LED, but both products have entered mass production. Millions of bulbs are made from high-voltage chips on the market this year. We and the country are discussing how to set standards for high-voltage chips, and we need to set this standard in China, Taiwan, and even the world.
What is the effect of Jingyuan Optoelectronics in China? What is the progress? When can it be put into production? Can it provide chip and system solutions for other LED companies in China?
Li Bingjie: The factory building in Changzhou was only started in May this year. The whole process of construction and civil engineering will not be completed until the first half of next year. It takes about a year or so for this process, because there is still a clean room in the middle. , almost completed in May next year, the machine entered the field to complete. We estimate that in the third quarter of next year, it may be slightly off the end of the third quarter, because the machine has to do a second configuration after entering the clean room. operation. As for the output of the chip, not only for the supply of foreign countries, our entire planned design includes our customers in China.
How do you judge the penetration and development trend of LED-backlit LCD TVs in the next year or two?
Li Bingjie: In 2005, Sony introduced the LED-backlit LCD TV for the first time. At that time, all the research units bought it and opened it to see what was going on. But in fact, the real mass production is the last two or three years, even if the total number in 2008 did not exceed 200,000 units, but in 2009 the total number of the world has reached about 3 million units. There are several important factors in this. The first important factor is the point of view of system design. Now LED chips have acceptable wavelength ranges. For companies specializing in LED chips, if we produce chips with a total wavelength range of 15 nanometers to 20 nanometers. The system designer told you that I can only use the 5 nanometer wavelength range. At this time, the chip manufacturers are afraid to produce it because you don't know who the other wavelength range chips are sold to.
But the calculation can be found that if the LED backlight of the TV is applied, it is more than any current application. At present, no application has a larger demand than this. Therefore, from 2005 to 2006, the chip makers and TV manufacturers were very serious. Until the end of 2006 and early 2007, Samsung first planned in the plan to use chips with a wavelength range of more than 10 nanometers in a TV. Such a design officially opened the 2009 LED-backlit LCD TV market.
In 2009, the global LED-backlit LCD TVs were 3 million units, an increase of 10 times compared with 2008. This year's sales are expected to reach 3,000 to 35 million units. Compared with about 200 million flat-panel TVs in the world, the ratio is less than 20%. The world's 200 million TVs include plasma and LCD TVs, of which less than 170 million LCD TVs, so the total average penetration rate may be around 20%. For next year's projection, there will be 70 million to 80 million TV backlights in the world. The total LCD TVs worldwide will be estimated at 185 million units next year, accounting for 40% to 45%. Samsung is a great contributor to the huge market for LED-backlit LCD TVs. Of course, once a manufacturer can do it, many people can do it. Now many manufacturers are starting to do LED backlight TV, which is a big market. Only in this way, as a supplier, the price can be lowered and attractive.
What do you think about the investment boom from the second half of last year to the present? What do you think about the development of LED indoor lighting?
Li Bingjie: At present, everyone's investment in LED is very hot, and we are worried that there will be overproduction in the second half of 2011. Or take TV as an example. If all the 170 million LCD TVs in the world are converted to LEDs, we only need one thousand epitaxial furnaces (MOCVD). In 2009, 200 to 250 MOCVDs were installed in the world. In 2010, there were about 700 new installations worldwide, and 800-900 units have been installed in two years. For global applications, in addition to LCD backlighting and lighting, all other applications require approximately 500 MOCVDs to meet demand. Next year, the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCD TVs is 40% to 45%, optimistically estimated to reach 50%, but the newly installed 800-900 MOCVD capacity has accounted for 50% of the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCD TVs. 8-9 percent of the number of LEDs required. From this perspective, overcapacity is likely to happen.
To solve this problem, there are two ideas, one is a relatively passive position, that is, MOCVD does not necessarily produce the specifications required by the TV. If half of the standards are not up to standard, there is no problem of overcapacity; another idea is the use of the lighting part. The amount can be enlarged in large quantities. However, the amount of lighting used is magnified. We think there are several difficulties. The first one is the standard. If the standard cannot be set up, it is difficult to increase the penetration rate and enlarge it. Just now, when it comes to investment, I feel that we need to rethink the global usage. In the world, lighting requires only about 4,000 MOCVD. China has already registered MOCVD for installation. In 2012, it will install 900 units. If 1,500 units are installed in 2015, it will account for 40% of the MOCVD required for lighting worldwide. If the lighting penetration rate is not nearly 40% by then, the same problem will occur, that is, overcapacity. Therefore, I think that when planning, we should consider that, first, the penetration rate of LED lighting reached 40% in 2015, which is a very difficult goal. There is a figure in South Korea that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2015 reached 30%. So if you reach 40% in 2015, it will exceed the expectations of most people. From this figure, China's MOCVD accounts for 40% of the world in 2015. This is to solve the problem between supply and demand if other people are also producing, assuming that others are not producing. Therefore, I think that investment needs to be carefully considered. Going back to the passive position, if the MOCVD production is not good, if you don't use it, although there is no overcapacity problem, it wastes a lot of investment money.
At present, there are nearly 60 enterprises in the mainland that have put into production on the chip, but there are still many repeated constructions in the low-end. Please combine the experience and lessons of Taiwan and Jingyuan to give some advice to the mainland chip industry.
Li Bingjie: In 1998, there were 12 factories in Taiwan that made red and yellow chips. In 2003, there were also many manufacturers of blue chip chips. Later, these figures were reduced. In the past two years, everyone has rekindled hope and more manufacturers have invested. From the perspective of chip supply, manufacturers hope to provide low-cost products to end users. However, one of the prerequisites for solid-state lighting applications today is that energy-saving effects are expected when using LED bulbs. In addition to energy saving, it is also expected to be economically less expensive than conventional tungsten filament bulbs. Therefore, under these two considerations, there are certain requirements for the light efficiency that can be achieved. In all the technological developments, most of the enterprises have always been relatively small in initial investment. After the technology reaches a certain level, they will be invested in a large amount. However, the situation seen in China is that the investment is more courageous and invested in the beginning. Larger, trying to find a different market to digest the product. I just introduced it to you. At present, if the TV backlight consumption is not counted, the demand in the world is only 500 MOCVD, and the low-end, old MOCVD has long existed. In this low-end field, I think the growth of the market is relatively limited, and the risk of this investment going in will be higher. In order for investment to be efficient, it is necessary to ensure that it is technically achievable and capable of mass production. Otherwise, the initial stage of rapid investment is a very large risk for investors. Of course, Jingyuan Optoelectronics has done many mergers and acquisitions in Taiwan. There may be better chip factories in China and mergers and acquisitions of other companies. If there is a strong chip factory to acquire other ones, it may be possible to make a relatively strong chip manufacturing company in China. One thing can be provided for you to think about. In time, the backlight module may reach 70% penetration in 2012, so in a short period of time, the backlight market will reach saturation, which is currently The world's largest market, the second largest market is the lighting into the future, there is a change in the field of lighting, in the extension, chip, package, module all the way to the application, so that the way of continuous subdivision, in the future There will be some changes in the annual meeting. There are also some chip factories in China that have begun to do vertical integration. This may be another way. However, it is too distracting resources. It is not easy to make epitaxial chips. At the same time, modules and light sources are needed. I think it is another risk in terms of resources. It may be a right direction, but it may also be Let yourself fall into a more dangerous phase.
What is the consideration of Jingyuan Optoelectronics Investment Jingke Electronics? Where is the difference between Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Jingke Electronics? From the perspective of long-term development, what is the technical route for the future development of Jingyuan?
Li Bingjie: The reason for investing in Jingke Electronics is a bit complicated. We divide the chips into three categories. The first category is the sapphire substrate. The products of Nichia and Toyota for the company are mostly of this type; the second type is the vertical chip, which needs to be transferred through the substrate, and the most sold part of the substrate is the United States. Corre and Europe's Osram, the third is flip-chip technology, which is the technology adopted by American Lumen, Jingke belongs to the technical route of flip-chip, crystal is now a sapphire substrate, technically it is Different, the crystal photoelectric is mainly used as a chip. We hope to have some technical trends in the future, but the manpower may focus on continuously improving the technical part of the so-called sapphire substrate, so the flip-chip part in a short time. It was handed over to Jingke Electronics to develop.
There are three types of technologies that have just been talked about. There are R&D in Jingdian, and they are all working hard. As far as the overall technology is concerned, none of the three currently have a decisive advantage, because Nichia is still Focusing on sapphire, Cree is a vertical structure, and there is no conclusion which one is the decisive advantage in the future.
At present, there are nearly 60 enterprises in the mainland that have put into production on the chip, but there are still many repeated constructions in the low-end. Please combine the experience and lessons of Taiwan and Jingyuan to give some advice to the mainland chip industry.
Li Bingjie: In 1998, there were 12 factories in Taiwan that made red and yellow chips. In 2003, there were also many manufacturers of blue chip chips. Later, these figures were reduced.
In the past two years, everyone has rekindled hope and more manufacturers have invested. From the perspective of chip supply, manufacturers hope to provide low-cost products to end users. However, one of the prerequisites for solid-state lighting applications today is that energy-saving effects are expected when using LED bulbs. In addition to energy saving, it is also expected to be economically less expensive than conventional tungsten filament bulbs. Therefore, under these two considerations, there are certain requirements for the light efficiency that can be achieved. In all the technological developments, most of the enterprises have always been relatively small in initial investment. After the technology reaches a certain level, they will be invested in a large amount. However, the situation seen in China is that the investment is more courageous and invested in the beginning. Larger, trying to find a different market to digest the product. I just introduced it to you. At present, if the TV backlight consumption is not counted, the demand in the world is only 500 MOCVD, and the low-end, old MOCVD has long existed. In this low-end field, I think the growth of the market is relatively limited, and the risk of this investment going in will be higher. In order for investment to be efficient, it is necessary to ensure that it is technically achievable and capable of mass production. Otherwise, the initial stage of rapid investment is a very large risk for investors. Of course, Jingyuan Optoelectronics has done many mergers and acquisitions in Taiwan. There may be better chip factories in China and mergers and acquisitions of other companies. If there is a strong chip factory to acquire other ones, it may be possible to make a relatively strong chip manufacturing company in China. One thing can be provided for you to think about. In time, the backlight module may reach 70% penetration in 2012, so in a short period of time, the backlight market will reach saturation, which is currently The world's largest market, the second largest market is the lighting into the future, there is a change in the field of lighting, in the extension, chip, package, module all the way to the application, so that the way of continuous subdivision, in the future There will be some changes in the annual meeting. There are also some chip factories in China that have begun to do vertical integration. This may be another way. However, it is too distracting resources. It is not easy to make epitaxial chips. At the same time, modules and light sources are needed. I think it is another risk in terms of resources. It may be a right direction, but it may also be Let yourself fall into a more dangerous phase.
What is the consideration of Jingyuan Optoelectronics Investment Jingke Electronics? Where is the difference between Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Jingke Electronics? From the perspective of long-term development, what is the technical route for the future development of Jingyuan?
Li Bingjie: The reason for investing in Jingke Electronics is a bit complicated. We divide the chips into three categories. The first category is the sapphire substrate. The products of Nichia and Toyota for the company are mostly of this type; the second type is the vertical chip, which needs to be transferred through the substrate, and the most sold part of the substrate is the United States. Corre and Europe's Osram, the third is flip-chip technology, which is the technology adopted by American Lumen, Jingke belongs to the technical route of flip-chip, crystal is now a sapphire substrate, technically it is Different, the crystal photoelectric is mainly used as a chip. We hope to have some technical trends in the future, but the manpower may focus on continuously improving the technical part of the so-called sapphire substrate, so the flip-chip part in a short time. It was handed over to Jingke Electronics to develop.
There are three types of technologies that have just been talked about. There are R&D in Jingdian, and they are all working hard. As far as the overall technology is concerned, none of the three currently have a decisive advantage, because Nichia is still Focusing on sapphire, Cree is a vertical structure, and there is no conclusion which one is the decisive advantage in the future.
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