Insulator arrester market development analysis

In recent years, China's power industry has developed rapidly and the installed capacity of generators has increased year by year. According to statistics, in 2010, China’s installed power generation capacity was 962 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 10.08%. Insulator arrester is an indispensable component of transmission and transformation equipment and is closely related to the development of the power industry. According to related research and forecast, the compound annual growth rate of sales revenue of insulator insulator arrester manufacturing industry in China from 2012 to 2015 is 17.83%. In 2015, the sales revenue of domestic insulator arrester industry will reach 40.3 billion yuan. China's insulator arrester market is very optimistic.

Industry sales will reach 40.3 billion over the next three years

With the implementation of the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Power Planning, China's power grid construction will be characterized by large capacity, long distances, large spans, and special high voltages, which will in turn drive the demand for insulator arresters for the power transmission and transformer substations of the order of one million volts. The development of China's power grid to ultra-high voltage and large capacity has promoted the nationwide trans-territory UHV networking project and improved the performance requirements for insulator products. Insulators with high strength levels, good stain resistance and high reliability will become the focus of the industry in the future. Developed products.

Since 2004, the main business income of China's insulator arrester industry has continued to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 25%. With the improvement of the technical level of China's insulating products manufacturing industry and the acceleration of economic development in countries such as East Asia and South Asia, major domestic enterprises have seized the opportunity to actively explore the international market, and the export delivery value of the industry has increased year by year.

According to the "2012-2016 China insulator arrester manufacturing industry production and sales demand and investment forecast analysis report" shows that the power industry is the most important application market for insulator arrester products, China's current many power projects, such as the construction and transformation of urban and rural power grids The launch of the West-East Power Transmission Project, the electrified railway construction project, and the UHV product market not only provided a broad market space for the development of the insulator arrester industry, but also set new requirements for the industry product market and promoted the market for insulator arrester products. Structural adjustment and new technology development efforts.

Insulator arrester market development

Insulator arrester is an indispensable part of power transmission equipment. It has a close relationship with the development of the national economy, especially the development of the power industry. According to the relevant information, in 2000 China’s power construction completed a grid investment of RMB 120.8 billion, a power investment of RMB 51.191 billion, a new transmission line of 220 kV and above 12364 km, a variable capacity of 32.68 million kVA, and a total installed capacity of 319 million kW. The construction has completed a total investment of 177.4 billion yuan, and the power industry has achieved rapid development. Especially in the construction and transformation of urban and rural power grids, in 2000 they really entered the ordering and installation phase. The market demand reached a peak period and the overall ordering situation was good. According to statistics of 38 porcelain surge arrester manufacturers in the insulator arrester industry in 2000, the sales of products are not less than RMB 1.7 billion.

During the 10th Five-Year Plan period, the CPC Central Committee put forward the important guiding ideology for the reform and development of the electric power industry: the electric power construction must be based on the current situation, focus on the long-term, adjust the structure of the power supply, strengthen the construction of the power grid, and promote the nationwide networking. Make full use of existing power generation capacity, develop hydropower, large-scale thermal power generation units in the mines, compress small thermal power, and moderately develop nuclear power. We will deepen the reform of the power system, gradually implement the separation of factories and networks, bid on the Internet, and establish a reasonable electricity price formation mechanism. Develop new energy and renewable energy sources. With the improvement of the domestic and Asian economic situation, the development of other related industries (industries) and the start of major projects will also bring greater market to the industry. However, with the globalization of the economy, the challenges faced by the industry enterprises will become more severe, and the competitive pressure will further increase. The specific development trend is analyzed as follows:

1. The reform and sustainable development of the power industry will ensure that the insulator arrester market will develop steadily

The insulator lightning arrester industry market will have a big development during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period, which is a steady increase, which reflects the following aspects:

(1) Continuous development of the power industry creates opportunities and conditions for the insulator arrester industry

China's power industry is still a sunrise industry. During the 10th Five-Year Plan period, it will invest approximately 7,000 to 800 billion yuan, focusing on structural adjustment and grid construction. The ratio of power supply to power grid investment has been adjusted from 1:0.25 to 0.35 to 1:0.7. We will increase technological innovations with an installed capacity of 9,930 kW (of which 25 million kW will be used by large generations), and the scale of production will reach 76 million kW, and the scale of start-up will reach 78 million kW. If calculated by 80t for each additional 10,000 kW installed capacity, the demand for the electric porcelain market is expected to be: 64,000 tons, of which 44800 tons for line insulators and 19,200 tons for electric ceramics for power stations. By 2005, it is expected that the annual output of power generation equipment will be 17 million kW; 135,000 high voltage circuit breakers; 180 million kVA of transformers; and 250,000 km of power cables. The power grid construction will invest 300 billion yuan, in addition to continuing to do a good job in urban and rural power grid construction, but also increase the "West Power Transmission to the East" and the construction of transmission channels. It is necessary to develop direct current transmission and realize large-area networking. The Northwest Power Grid needs to develop two 750kV lines. These will create opportunities and conditions for the insulator arrester industry.

(2) The construction and transformation of urban and rural power grids will continue to promote the steady development of insulator arrester industry

During the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the total investment of China’s power grid projects will exceed 300 billion yuan, accounting for more than 40% of the total investment in power projects during the same period. In 2000, the city network completed a total of 72.0 billion yuan, a total of 190 billion yuan in three years, and about 30% of the projects have not yet been completed. It is estimated that more than 700 billion yuan of investment will be completed in 2001-2002. During the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, in addition to the above-mentioned project tasks carried forward, the urban and rural power grids will continue to improve and build. This is because in 2000, new electricity was added to the power supply of some cities. Although some of the power supply facilities that have been transformed need further measures to adapt to the new growth needs, the scale of existing cities is expanding. The level of transformation is also increasing, and the development of urban power grids is an inevitable trend. According to the news, during the 10th Five-Year Plan period, the investment in the new round of urban power grid construction will also have a construction scale of about 100 billion yuan. Rural county-level power grids will further improve the construction in conjunction with urbanization.

The construction and transformation of urban power grids is still the main driving force for the development of the industrial market.

(3) The Three Gorges Project will continue to promote the development of insulator arrester industry

The "10th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for the construction of the Three Gorges Power Transmission Project, and it is crucial to ensure that the first batch of units of the Three Gorges Power Station will be sent out of power. According to reports, after the Three Gorges power transmission and transformation projects are all put into operation in 2008, the Three Gorges power grid will connect the power grids in the range of 1,500km from east to west and 1,000km from north to south. The annual power generation amounted to 8.47 million kW. h. The construction of the Three Gorges Project provided a considerable market and expansion market for the insulator arrester industry. The research and development of the industry and the development of new products mainly focus on the Three Gorges Project. The level of research projects is mostly 500kV, which puts forward higher technical requirements for the products, thereby promoting the development and progress of the insulator arrester industry.

(4) West-to-East power transmission and railway construction projects will drive the development of the industry

The draft outline of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” proposes that the four major projects of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, West-East Gas Transmission, West-East Electricity Transmission, and Qinghai-Tibet Railway will be launched one after another in the next five years.

West Power Transmission to the West is a landmark project for the development of the western region. During the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the West-East Power Transmission will form a north, middle and south three-way transmission pattern. The first batch of “West-to-East Power Transmission” projects in China, the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station, Yinzidu Hydropower Station, and the Wujiangdu Hydropower Station Expansion Project were started simultaneously in Guizhou on November 8, 2000. Before and after this, Tianshengqiao to Guangdong's third 500kV AC transmission line, Yunnan Baofeng to Luoping 500kV AC transmission line, Chongqing Wanxian to Three Gorges Hydropower Station 500kV AC transmission line project and Yunnan Xuanwei 600,000kW thermal power project have also started construction. The first batch of seven “West Power Transmission Projects” span Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Chongqing, Hubei and other provinces and cities, basically constituting the main skeleton of the “West-to-East Electricity Transmission” of China Southern Power Grid. Such large-scale and inter-provincial power construction started at the same time, and it was the first time in China's power construction history.

During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, the state will invest 350 billion yuan in many major railway constructions. Such as the construction of the Xi'an-Nanjing Railway, the Xilan Railway double-track and the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, etc., and further realize the electrification of the railway. The large investment in the history of China’s railway construction is unprecedented. Among them, the investment from 2001 to 2002 was nearly 120 billion yuan, especially the total length of 1933km of the plateau railway that will be built soon. The Qinghai-Tibet railway will invest more than 20 billion yuan.

Only these two projects will certainly drive the development of the industry.

(5) The 800kV product market will start

Northwest Power Grid has decided to develop 750kV transmission lines to improve the transmission capacity of the Northwest Power Grid. At present, two new 750kV lines have been planned, Manping-Lanzhou, Pingliang-Guanzhong, with a total length of 350km. State Power Corporation has decided to invest 19 million yuan in advance as a technology development start-up fee, which is conducive to the implementation of the project as soon as possible. The start of these projects prompted the insulator arrester industry to improve product quality and voltage levels in high technology. Otherwise, it will be eliminated by the market.

2. The development of related products brings opportunities for the development of products in the industry

As China's market economy develops in depth, users will require further enhancements in terms of products and performance while they are innovating themselves. Industry companies are required to continuously carry out technological innovations to meet the needs of related industry development, and the development of related industries is also This industry brings opportunities. For example, the high-voltage and ultra-high voltage circuit breakers (including GIS) in the switch industry are developing to SF6. Therefore, our industry should pay attention to the development space of SF6 bushings; the oil-SF6 bushings that adapt to the transformer industry's supporting products “oils for transformers and GIS connection” and Composite dry wall bushings for power stations are highly favored by users for their high reliability; the development of domestic electrified railways has led to the development of rail rod insulator products.

3. The market demand for high reliability, low (free) maintenance products will increase sharply

The construction of a unified nationwide power grid will result in the emergence of more EHV transmission lines and the possibility of UHV lines. Therefore, the search for safe, reliable and less maintenance-(or maintenance-free) insulators is a dream for scientific research and design personnel of transmission lines. The goal, whether from the reduction of staff efficiency or the implementation of state maintenance, the status of progress is of great significance.

Composite insulators will occupy a very important and irreplaceable part in China's UHV transmission, and they will fully compete with porcelain insulators and show their superiority. It has become a new generation of high-voltage transmission lines with its unique advantages of small size, light weight, high strength, heavy dirt resistance, and easy maintenance. The UHV composite insulators weigh only 10% of the porcelain insulator strings, and are even lighter, significantly reducing the burden on the tower, and can also be made into spacer rods to significantly reduce the line corridor. The composite insulator is excellent in stain resistance, can minimize the string length of the insulator, reduce the size of the tower, and basically eliminates the huge workload of contamination cleaning and zero value detection, so that the line maintenance is simpler and the operation is reliable.

The damage of the composite insulator is most prominent with the "brittle-breaking" of the mandrel. The so-called "brittle-breaking" refers to the breakage of the acid produced by the discharge of the humid atmosphere into the glass fiber of the mandrel. Therefore, the mandrel's resistance to acid etching should be improved. In addition, the loss and recovery of the hydrophobicity of the composite insulators is yet to be further studied.

Capacitive composite dry wall bushing is a new type of capacitive wall bushing. Its main insulation adopts new insulation materials, and its outer insulation uses high-performance vulcanized silicone rubber. It has excellent resistance to oil pollution and explosion-proof performance and is also in line with electricity. The development trend of oil-free and miniaturized departments is a new generation of high-voltage products that meet the requirements of urban and rural power grids.

4. WTO entry makes market competition more intense

With the globalization of the economy and the continuous development of information and network technologies, the boundaries of national boundaries and industries have been broken. Economic globalization is a general trend and cannot be stopped. In particular, after China’s accession to the WTO, it will improve China’s international trade environment, expand exports, attract foreign investment, introduce advanced technologies and equipment, develop international economic and technological cooperation, accelerate the pace of reform and opening up, promote the improvement of China’s socialist market economic system, and improve China’s International status is of great significance. However, while enjoying their rights, they must assume the obligations imposed by the WTO. The further opening up of the Chinese market will affect the development of some enterprises. China's accession to the WTO is a matter of much more than happiness in the current stage of the power industry in China. The challenge is greater than the opportunity. To expand the international and domestic markets, the key is to require our companies to increase their technological reserves and improve their independent development capabilities and overall strength. At this stage, the prices of our industry's products have become dominant. The key is how to obtain technological advantages, that is, to achieve the same level of quality in the world in terms of quality and reliability. The current insufficiency of China's high-voltage circuit porcelain insulator production is due to the large number of points and small scale. Manual operation, coal downdraft kiln firing, crude construction, and therefore low pass rate, high cost, serious waste of resources, competing with each other down the price and interest. The deregulation of the raw material market directly affects the stability of product quality. For high voltage surge arresters, their seal and flashover should be noted. Therefore, national standards in the formulation of standards should be brought into line with international standards as soon as possible. In the formulation of corporate standards, we must boldly innovate and dare to put forward requirements that are stricter than international standards and national standards in order to adapt to rapidly changing market requirements and provide more brand-name products.

While fierce competition in the domestic market, we should turn to foreign markets. Entering the Middle East (for example, UAE, Iran, Iraq, etc.) is one of the directions. At present, the Middle East recognizes China's products more and more, and the region is politically close to China. Therefore, the Middle East is a huge potential market, and it can even radiate Western Europe and Africa. It is worth our while to explore. Southeast Asia (for example, India, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.) is also our traditional export market. After the Asian financial crisis, the economies of Southeast Asian countries gradually recovered. These countries are densely populated and power is in urgent need of vigorous development. India, in particular, is the second largest developing country in the world. In 2000, GDP reached US$410 billion and GDP growth rate reached 5.7%. We should consolidate and develop.

Insulator Arrester Technology Development Trend Analysis

1, domestic technology trends

As a traditional high-voltage line suspension insulator, the electric porcelain industry has been able to produce 300kN products, and can assemble 400kN insulators by importing porcelain pieces and glass pieces. For new product composite insulators, basic research work is being carried out, keeping up with international development trends, researching and exploring new designs and processes. At present, the product voltage level has been developed to AC and DC 500kV.

As a power station electric porcelain, such as large porcelain sets, large rods are the current domestic imports of more products, the current mechanical and electrical performance of these products is close to the advanced level in foreign countries, but the appearance gap is greater. Leading companies in the industry with development capabilities are working on the study of porcelain materials and studying their processability. To study the mechanism of brittle fracture of composite conductors for transmission lines, to develop stress corrosion resistant mandrels, and to study the external insulation properties and long-term mechanical properties, the research on the electrical structure and optimization of composite insulators is the current and future research direction.

For surge arresters, on the one hand, domestic research and development work on improving the capacity, uniformity, and resistance to high current capacity of the resistor-potential gradient gauges are being conducted. On the other hand, they are also engaged in initial studies with gap arresters and high-voltage grades such as one million volts. .

2, demand forecast

According to the statistics of the industry in the past five years and the data analysis of the China International Engineering Consulting and Design Institute (formerly the Seven Institutes) database, the average number of high-voltage porcelains per new 10,000 installed capacity is 63.5 tons, and the highest year is 68.81 tons. Consider 20. The percentage of unbalanced coefficients is 80 tons for every 10,000 kW added. According to the new installed capacity of 1400 to 16 million kW in 2005, it is expected that the demand for the electric porcelain market will be 112,000 to 128,000 tons. The market demand at the end of the "10th Five-year Plan" is shown in the table below